The second round of Istanbul negotiations did not bring us any closer to peace, but it did provide a chance to address humanitarian issues. Poland has chosen the nationalist and Trumpist Nawrocki, adding to the ranks of Eurosceptics.
Good morning, dear friends! My name is Igor Yakovenko. Today is June 3rd. It’s currently 7:41 AM in Kyiv, and we’re continuing our morning reflections on what’s happening in Russia, the world, Ukraine, and in our souls.
Covering the War with Negotiations Link to heading
So, what happened in Istanbul? Yesterday, to be precise, was Groundhog Day. It was the second round of negotiations between the Ukrainian and Russian delegations on the conditions for ending the conflict. That’s the official phrasing. I can’t change it, but that’s how it’s called—the conditions for ending the armed conflict in Ukraine. Meaning, just some armed conflict in Ukraine. No mention of aggression, nothing really, and we’re not any closer to actual peace. It truly was Groundhog Day: the same delegations, the same demands. Let’s go into a bit more detail. The meeting was very brief, just over an hour long. In fact, the substantive part itself was only about 40 minutes. Turkey is pleased. The Turkish side said the meeting was “not negative,” which probably means there wasn’t a fistfight. Again, no progress toward peace, no cessation of the war at these negotiations—there hasn’t been, and there’s no sign there will be. But there were some serious steps toward addressing humanitarian issues. First and foremost, the Ukrainian delegation handed the Russian side a list of hundreds of Ukrainian children who had been taken out of Ukraine or held in Russian-controlled territories and whom Kyiv is demanding to be returned. I can’t help but point out the astonishingly cynical and morally idiotic reaction of Medinsky to this. He responded to the list of children with the following words, and I quote: “Stop putting on shows for childless, sentimental old European ladies.” End of quote. I don’t know if there’s any need to comment further—this remark says it all about Medinsky’s character. And how is Ukraine’s defense minister supposed to talk to this man? How can anyone talk to him at all? Well, they’re enduring it, and it’s fairly clear why. Still, I think that while there has been some movement on humanitarian issues, this whole negotiation process has nothing to do with moving toward peace or ending the war. It’s a performance for a single audience member across the ocean—Donald Trump. He wanted the Ukrainian and Russian delegations to meet because his influence is so strong that no one wants to cross him. For Ukraine, to seriously fall out with Trump would mean losing the aid still coming from Biden. Not to mention the possible cessation of intelligence sharing, which Trump has already tried to do. That’s why Ukraine went to these talks. As for Russia, it’s the same: these negotiations are a cover for their aggression. Everything is perfectly clear. But all of it is still just a performance for that one overseas spectator. Nonetheless, the negotiations did happen. Ukraine had long since made public the texts of its peace proposals, while Russia kept them secret until the very last moment. But the so-called “secret” was an open secret: nothing has changed since the first round. Both sides presented the same proposals. Ukraine proposed a complete, unconditional ceasefire in the air, on land, and at sea for 30 days. It also proposed an exchange of all prisoners and to discuss territorial issues only after a full ceasefire. Naturally, there was no mention of recognizing Russian jurisdiction over occupied territories. Ukraine also proposed a meeting between Presidents Putin and Zelensky. Russia’s position hasn’t changed. It demanded that Ukrainian troops withdraw from territories not yet occupied by Russia, meaning Ukraine would essentially have to surrender. In addition, there was a demand for elections in Ukraine, a demand to halt military assistance, and an end to any alliances and support from abroad. Essentially, they want Ukraine to stop receiving help from the West. The absurdity of these demands is self-evident. These aren’t proposals meant for discussion or for finding consensus; they’re just ritualistic posturing. Medinsky came to say, “Ukrainians, surrender, sign an act of full and final capitulation.” This was especially ludicrous after Putin’s Sunday operation. Regarding the Russian delegation’s suggestion to halt fighting for two or three days so each side could retrieve their dead, President Zelensky rightly called this demand idiotic. In reality, commanders are already exchanging the bodies of fallen soldiers directly on the battlefield. Overall, all these negotiations and this simulation of negotiation processes were rightly described by President Zelensky as an attempt to delay the imposition of new American sanctions on Russia. Again, the Ukrainian side supports any meeting between the presidents because it’s obvious that talking to the clown Medinsky—who has once again proven his moral idiocy with his comments about returning children—will never get them closer to peace. But it’s more or less clear what’s happening here. This performance for one overseas audience member will continue. A third round of negotiations has already been scheduled, and it seems this could go on for quite some time. Neither Ukraine nor Russia can really afford to walk away from the talks right now, even though I understand the Ukrainian delegation would love nothing more than to never see Medinsky’s hypocritical face again.
Poland Turning Brown Link to heading
And now, about an event that was probably the most central in Europe this past Sunday. I’m talking about the elections in Poland—arguably the most important and most challenging elections in recent years. I’ll say right away that we’ll return to this topic tomorrow. We’ll have Petro Kuleba, an expert who understands the situation in Poland much better than I do, because this event is so significant that I think we’ll revisit it several times. So, as you probably know, dear friends, the victory, with a very slim margin, went to Karol Nawrocki, the candidate from the opposition, right-wing conservative Law and Justice party. He’s a relatively new figure on the Polish political scene, but he’s made his presence very clear. He’s a nationalist, a Eurosceptic, and a Trumpist, but a more complex figure than can be summed up with just these three words or lumped in with the “Trojan horse” club of Hungary’s prime minister or Slovakia’s leader. So, what does this mean for Poland? It’s clear enough: it’s a serious success for this conservative party, Law and Justice. It’s essentially a declaration that in the 2027 parliamentary elections, this party plans to secure a majority. Nawrocki is a man supported by Trump. He even met with him about two weeks ago—briefly, but still, Trump gave him what you might call a blessing for his victory. Nawrocki is a highly controversial figure. Previously, he headed the German Museum of World War II and the Institute of National Remembrance. The Polish press has accused him of football hooliganism—something he doesn’t deny. They’ve also accused him of ties to the criminal underworld—something he does deny. Accusations of connections to neo-Nazis—also denied. There’s also a scandal about him using a pensioner to rent an apartment on the cheap—he denies that too, although there’s documentation, so it’s pointless to deny it. On top of that, the Polish press has plenty of stories about him working as a hotel security guard on the Baltic coast and helping guests find prostitutes—in other words, he was a pimp. Nawrocki denies all the criminal allegations, though the Polish press offers various pieces of evidence and witness accounts. But none of this seems to have mattered to Polish voters. Like Trump, his mentor, Nawrocki simply dismisses all of it as lies and claims it’s just the liberal media’s bias. In full Trump style.
As for U.S. support—well, that’s a complicated question. What proportion of Nawrocki’s voters were motivated by his ties to U.S. support? I doubt it was decisive, but maybe it did sway a few percent. Mostly, though, it’s all about this nationalist agenda. One Polish commentator said Poland is increasingly turning brown in color. We’ll discuss this more tomorrow with Kuleba. But today, it’s worth noting that calling Nawrocki just another Eurosceptic in the mold of the Hungarian prime minister or Slovakia’s leader is not entirely accurate. Because his election is bad news for Ukraine. Nawrocki is definitely critical of Ukraine and has a negative attitude toward the many Ukrainian refugees in Poland. Aid to Ukraine might be scaled back, though probably not to the extreme of Viktor Orbán’s outright opposition to helping Ukraine. More likely, aid will continue, though perhaps in smaller volumes.
The main thing is that Nawrocki, unlike Trump or the leader of Slovakia, is not a pro-Russian politician. That’s absolutely certain. In fact, Nawrocki is wanted by Russia—which is ironic, since the Russian Investigative Committee can pinpoint his location and try to arrest him. Nawrocki is accused by Russia of initiating the dismantling of several Red Army monuments in Poland—an act Russia has labeled a criminal offense. They put him on the wanted list last year. So the likelihood that Nawrocki will travel to Russia and cozy up to Putin, as Orbán and Slovakia’s leader have, is zero. He is 100% not a pro-Russian candidate. Nor is he a pro-European candidate, either. He’s more of a “Poland first” candidate, similar in some ways to Trump’s “Make America Great Again” idea. Here, it’s more like “Make Poland Great Again.” It’s bad news for Europe and for Ukraine, no doubt. But as that old risqué joke goes, it’s terrible—but not the absolute worst. We’ll see how it unfolds.
Closing Words Link to heading
Dear friends, unfortunately, I have to apologize to you because today’s stream is going to be a bit shorter. Yesterday we talked for over 2.5 hours. Today, there’s so much to discuss—I will definitely answer all your questions tomorrow, plus any that you send in today. Altogether, there are over 30 questions when you include the comments, which I will also definitely read out and address. So tomorrow’s stream is going to be very long. But today, I have to wrap up our conversation here. I want to remind you that at 8 PM tonight, we’ll have a very interesting discussion with military expert Yuriy Fedorov. That doesn’t mean we undervalue or consider the expertise of Serhii Maratovych Hrabskiy—who had a very interesting talk with us yesterday—to be in any way insufficient. But it’s important to take different perspectives. Yuriy Yevhenovych is someone whose opinion is also extremely valuable, and it’s essential to compare notes with him from time to time—it’s very useful. So, 7 PM. Yuriy Fedorov. I recommend you don’t miss it, especially since Sunday’s operation “Pautina” deserves another look, and given everything happening on the front lines today. Yuriy Yevhenovych is someone with whom you can discuss not only military topics. So today, I’m looking forward to a very interesting and important conversation.
Dear friends, with that, unfortunately, I must end today’s chat. But we’ll meet again at 7 PM. Glory to Ukraine! Please take care of yourselves! Freedom for Aleksandr Skobov, for all Russian political prisoners, and for all Ukrainian POWs! See you at 7 PM!
Source: https://youtu.be/fV1xjMOTl8w