Putin’s nighttime statement: to resume direct negotiations with Ukraine on May 15 in Istanbul without a ceasefire. This was a response to the joint statement by Zelensky and European leaders on a ceasefire starting May 12.
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Good morning, dear friends! My name is Igor Yakovenko. Today is Sunday, May 11th, and I’m in Kyiv. It’s 7:40 AM, and we’re continuing our morning reflections on what’s happening in Russia, in the world, in Ukraine, and in our souls. This is a special Sunday edition of the 7-40 program. It will be brief—no historical rhymes, no answers to questions. I’ll answer all your questions, dear friends, on Monday, including those from Friday’s MUS episode. And if there are any questions about today’s episode, I’ll try to answer those as well. But right now, I think it’s time for a quick analysis, a conversation, a consultation, a shared reflection on what happened last night.
So, what happened? Last night, Putin gathered his information entourage. As usual, he was two hours late, showing up at 1:30 AM. This was actually Putin’s first such late-night press event. He spoke for 19 minutes. I’ll skip over the rather ridiculous statements about how the presence of representatives from Burkina Faso, Laos, and Myanmar at the parade in Moscow meant global unity around the values of the “Russian world.” He also made numerous accusations against Ukraine about violating the ceasefire, citing laughable numbers clearly pulled out of thin air—5000 violations, to be precise. Basically, 35,001 couriers.
What I really want to discuss with you is the core message Putin delivered. I quote: “I propose that the Kyiv authorities resume the negotiations they interrupted at the end of 2022, resume direct talks, without any preconditions. Let’s start without delay this coming Thursday, May 15, in Istanbul, where they were previously held and where they were interrupted.”
What else? Before moving on to a quick analysis of what Putin said and its consequences, one notable point is that he once again referred to the conflict as a war. That’s important—this is one of those moments when language resists lies. Yes, of course, language can be used to lie, but sometimes language itself resists falsehood. Because to say, for example, “end the war”—well, only someone engaged in a war can use the word “war.” A proposal for Ukraine to end it is impossible, since Ukraine is waging a defensive war. Ukraine, by the way, has nothing to end. So occasionally, Putin lets the truth slip out.
But the main thing is this: in this latest proposal, Putin once again emphasized the need to eliminate the root causes of the conflict. And behind this phrase lie the well-known demands for the “denazification” and “demilitarization” of Ukraine. In other words, once again Putin is essentially proposing Ukraine’s self-liquidation. And that’s obvious. It’s obvious that with such an approach to negotiations, there’s no point in participating. We’ll discuss that more in a moment.
Putin also mentioned he plans to speak with Erdoğan about organizing the talks, since the idea is for them to take place in Turkey. Once again, the purpose of these proposed negotiations is to eliminate the root causes of the conflict and achieve a lasting peace over the long term.
And in conclusion to his nighttime appearance, Putin told his lackeys, “I release you with God.” A rather peculiar way of addressing people. But never mind. These are just formalities. What’s important?
Undoubtedly, this statement was a response to what happened in Kyiv on May 10th. On that day, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Nemz, and the prime ministers of Poland and the UK—Tusk and Taymer. Following the meeting, a joint statement was released calling for a 30-day ceasefire starting on May 12th. In addition, European leaders stated that if Putin did not agree, they would increase military aid to Ukraine and intensify sanctions against Putin—that is, against Russia. That statement was very much like an ultimatum.
Putin’s nighttime appearance was his response to that ultimatum. He effectively rejected the ceasefire and made an attempt to seize the initiative. The main point is that the real target of his message was Trump. I won’t try to predict how Ukraine will respond, but the key audience was Trump. Because ignoring the joint statement from Ukraine, France, the UK, Poland, and Germany would have likely pushed Trump further into criticizing Putin and possibly even endorsing serious sanctions. Or perhaps Trump might have completely stepped away from the negotiation process, which Putin absolutely does not want—he needs the negotiation process as a cover for the war he’s waging against Ukraine.
Now let’s try a quick analysis of what happened. First, it makes sense to go back to the reasons the 2022 Istanbul talks were interrupted. These talks have been heavily mythologized by the Russian side. Why were they broken off? Putin is proposing to return to the Istanbul format—but why were they interrupted in the first place? At the time, there seemed to be some notion that peace might be achievable. Why did that vanish?
There are a few specific factors. Let’s recall. First, it became clear that you can’t fight a war and negotiate at the same time. Why? Because war introduces new factors that destroy previously reached agreements. At the time of the talks, the Russian Black Sea flagship Moskva had been sunk. Then, the horrific crimes in Bucha were exposed, which naturally made negotiations much more difficult. So, essentially, just weeks after the sinking of the Moskva, the talks began to fall apart.
I remember a statement from Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukraine’s presidential office, who recently said that if Ukraine had known at the time of the Istanbul talks what had happened in Bucha and other Kyiv region towns, its delegation would have taken a much tougher stance. Today, returning to the Istanbul communiqué is impossible because the emotional backdrop has drastically changed. There have been too many war crimes. Everyone has seen them live.
To reiterate, some of the points tentatively discussed back then are now completely unacceptable. For instance, Russia as a security guarantor—that was part of the Istanbul framework. But after everything that’s happened, that now seems like a cruel joke. How can Russia be a guarantor of anything?
On the Russian side, too, a lot has changed. Russia amended its Constitution to include four Ukrainian regions in addition to Crimea. That fundamentally changes the picture. There’s no way to return to the starting point of those Istanbul talks. Conditions have changed on both the Kyiv and Moscow sides.
But most importantly, Putin has no intention of halting military operations. If, hypothetically, Ukraine agreed to direct talks with Moscow, the negotiation process would involve completely unsolvable issues. For instance, what would happen to the occupied territories? What security guarantees would Ukraine receive during the process? Is Russia even ready for any compromises? So far, it’s clearly not.
So Putin’s proposal to resume the interrupted 2022 direct talks without preconditions is unacceptable for Ukraine. Because even the phrase itself implies preconditions. If we’re resuming negotiations—not from a clean slate, but from where the Istanbul talks ended—then we’re really talking about terms of Ukraine’s capitulation. Those talks included discussions on limiting the size and types of Ukraine’s armed forces, Ukraine’s voluntary renunciation of all military cooperation with the West. That’s what Putin means by “eliminating the root causes of the conflict.” And that’s absolutely impossible and unacceptable.
Also, we must debunk the myth Russia keeps pushing: that the talks were called off on Boris Johnson’s orders. That’s nonsense. It violates one of the basic laws of the universe—namely, the irreversibility of time. Johnson’s visit to Kyiv took place after Ukraine had already exited the negotiation process. His visit couldn’t have influenced that outcome—it came too late.
So, demanding that Kyiv return to the Istanbul discussions without preconditions is like asking Ukraine to discuss how exactly it will surrender completely and unconditionally.
And most importantly, Putin is demanding that Ukraine return to the negotiating table while the war continues. He said so explicitly: “There’s a war in Ukraine, but we’ll negotiate in Istanbul.” What’s the problem with that? The problem is that in this setup, negotiations are just a cover—just a facade behind which Putin will continue killing Ukrainians.
We now have clearly opposing positions. Ukraine and Europe are demanding a ceasefire first, and then negotiations. No fighting, no war. Putin says no—let’s keep fighting and also talk in Istanbul. The key question is: how will Donald Trump interpret all this? There are at least two ways this could be spun. One, you could say, “Look, Putin wants to negotiate with Ukraine directly—how great, because negotiations are good, right? It’s a deal!” Trump’s favorite word. On the other hand, it’s clear Putin rejected the West and Ukraine’s proposal for a 30-day ceasefire. Logically, that should prompt Trump to respond with harsh sanctions. But how this will be presented is the key.
Especially because the WEF (World Economic Forum) has already said it no longer believes in any ceasefire and is demanding direct talks. So in effect, Putin is echoing the WEF.
So the big question is: how will Trump respond? His initial reaction was vague—he seemed optimistic. But the next key question is how Ukraine will respond. And that seems fairly clear—agreeing to talks while the war continues and with no preconditions would be a very serious mistake. In my view, that would mean playing into Putin’s hands.
I’ll now give my opinion. Last night I ran a poll on our channel. The question was: “Do you think Ukraine will accept Putin’s proposal for talks in Istanbul on May 15th without preconditions—that is, without a ceasefire?” Over 2,000 people voted. The results: 18% said yes, 66% said no, and 16% were unsure.
I completely agree with the majority—the likelihood that Ukraine will say no is quite high. Those 18% who think Ukraine will agree probably believe Trump, who frankly doesn’t understand what’s happening between Russia and Ukraine, might start to pressure Kyiv.
I hope people understand the danger of resuming talks in the format Putin proposed—talks that will legitimize him. On one side, he’d be negotiating with the U.S., on the other, with Ukraine. That gives him cover and lets him pretend he’s legitimate, not a criminal waging a war of aggression.
Meanwhile, he’ll keep killing. It’s clear Putin has no intention of stopping the war. After the May 9 “victory spectacle,” he received strong support from Xi Jinping, who likely encouraged him to continue. With this added “bonus” of negotiations, Putin hopes to deflect sanctions: “Why impose sanctions? I’m negotiating!”
This nighttime move by Putin is essentially a diplomatic sabotage aimed at his friend Trump, who doesn’t understand the conflict and might support the idea. Again, the EU has already said it supports direct Ukraine-Russia talks. Let’s wait and see what happens.
I’ve shared my view. Two-thirds of our audience agree. Though I understand the 18% who believe Ukraine might go along. We’ll see.
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Before moving on to—I almost said answering questions. No, the answers will come tomorrow. Before we wrap up our morning conversation, I want to mention that at 6:00 PM we’ll have the weekly summary, and at 10:00 PM—Mediafrenia. There are some quite interesting trends in both programs. I recommend tuning in. That concludes our special morning broadcast. Glory to Ukraine! Please take care of yourselves! Freedom to Alexander Skobov, to all Russian political prisoners, and to Ukrainian captives. Thank you. And apologies for disturbing you on the weekend, but I felt it was worth sharing my opinion and reflecting together on Putin’s nighttime outing. See you at 6:00 PM.
Source: https://youtu.be/NysfcpCu-DQ